The Indian pharmaceutical sector, at the forefront in supplying Covid-19 drugs and vaccinations, is poised to gain from demand in vaccinations both in India and overseas markets and Care Ratings has pegged the opportunity at between US $ 10-11 billion. This was stated in a report that was released.
While this looks like a huge opportunity, the average realisation could be anywhere between US $ 3.25-3.50 per dose whereas, the premium enjoyed by US multinationals is between US $ 15-25 per dose.
According to CARE Ratings, the majority of domestic demand is expected to be fulfilled by the first quarter of next year.
The report states that opportunities in various African, Asian excluding China and Japan and some South American countries, where the pace of vaccination remains very slow would still exist, which is expected to remain greater than 1.25 billion doses.
As of August 10, 2021, over 4.35 billion Covid-19 vaccine shots have been administered globally. The USA, China and most of the European countries have vaccinated more than 50 per cent of their total eligible population with at least one dose.
According to the experts of several infectious diseases, more than 70 per cent of the world's population needs to be vaccinated to achieve a safe environment from Covid-19, the rating agency noted.
The pace of vaccination in India has been steady at about 50-55 lakh doses per day mainly due to huge demand with supply (despite being sizable) unable to match the immediate demand.
Currently, as many as five vaccines are approved by the Indian regulator for emergency use authorisation and another three are under various stages, it said.
As the majority of the Indian populace is expected to get vaccinated during 2021, the opportunity for domestic pharma companies for this period is about US $ 4.6 billion. And is expected to increase to US $ 4.9 billion during 2022 with an increase in exports.
Furthermore, with near saturation of demand, the sales opportunity is expected to come down to about USD 1.6 billion during 2023, thus, USD 10-11 billion worth of opportunity for Indian vaccine manufacturers during 2021-2023, Care Ratings stated.