Algorithm to calculate number of years one lives with good health
Healthcare

Algorithm to calculate number of years one lives with good health

In collaboration with RAND Europe, the Vitality calculator predicts an individual's healthspan and future health risks

  • By IPP Bureau | October 12, 2021

Vitality reveals the results of research quantifying the widening gap between lifespan (life expectancy) and healthspan (the number of years lived in good health) globally, reflecting a diminishing quality of life in later years. Vitality and RAND Europe have also developed a pioneering algorithm that will allow individuals, for the first time, to understand how their lifestyle choices impact both their length and quality of life. This will enable them to take actions that will maximise the number of years they spend in good health in the future.

"Incentivising positive lifestyle changes in a world forever changed by the global pandemic can have a profound impact on the health of individuals and reduce the burden on health services," said Adrian Gore, Discovery/Global Vitality Chief Executive. "Our global network of leading insurers has a unique opportunity to monetize and incentivize better future health and given global trends, and I believe we have a responsibility to act. Over the last 30 years, scientific change has driven increases in lifespan. Improving healthspan globally will require a greater focus on behaviour change – with benefits for individuals, the economy and society."

The research highlights an average 15% increase since 1990 in the number of years that people will spend in ill health over their lifetimes, from 8.5 years to 9.8 years, which equates to approximately 18% of the average lifespan. This outcome follows health strategies that prioritize treatment over prevention and technologies that enable people to live longer with disease..

"The disconnect we experience between our current and future selves leads to suboptimal decision-making in areas of finance and health," said Professor Hal Hershfield, UCLA Anderson School of Management Professor of Marketing and Behavioral Decision Making. "This emotional divide between selves led us to explore a new question: What are people most interested in knowing about their futures? – since these insights can serve as a useful stepping-stone towards making healthier lifestyle choices. Knowing what information people value on this journey to wellbeing is an important factor in bridging the gulf between a person's current and future self, and potentially towards maximizing health over time."

The new algorithm, developed by Vitality in collaboration with RAND Europe, will provide individuals with a personalised view of their lifespan and healthspan, as well as bespoke recommendations for improving these measures, delivered in a way that best resonates with them. This world-first public calculator of individual healthspan – the Vitality Healthy Futures calculator – will be available on the Vitality International website for a limited time.

 

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